A Trump Win & $100k Bitcoin
Hypothesis: BTC reaches $100K by end February 2025 after Trump secures the presidency.
This post conceives that Trump secures the presidency, and his pro-Bitcoin stance and related quick policy actions catalyze a Bitcoin rally, driving the price to $100K by end February 2025.
The DNC is awash with confidence.
Young blood has taken over the DNC leadership as an aging POTUS reluctantly stepped out of the race. It’s a powerful story. Key DNC supporters have since sent in their previously-sidelined SuperPAC checks and donations to the tune of $100M. Fundraising has included WhatsApp group calls between Harris and minority and women groups during which campaign finances were raised while building voter support. Google had reportedly embedded left-leaning search limitations into their engine, while the mainstream media has filled the post-Biden void with pro-Harris, anti-Trump rhetoric.
But is she electable?
The Harris leadership and her electability are grossly unproven. She is the same VP who was quickly wheeled out of the public eye in 2021 due to her extremely poor nationwide approval ratings (28%). The same candidate who never competed in the presidential nominee debate process. The same candidate who was not elected by the people as the DNC nominee, but instead blessed by Biden as his successor. The blanket of support by the mainstream media seems more like window dressing that has little bearing on swing states and non-partisan voters.
Harris will have the opportunity to prove her viability at the DNC convention in late August. This is where the rubber hits the road. Still under-experienced on the presidential stage, the appearances that she has done have been a mixed bag - notably her “what can be, unburdened by what has been” word salad, and her recent poor response to a question about inflation. Can Team Harris put together a stronger, savvier marketing game over the summer, perhaps focusing on her successes as a prosecutor and Attorney General (while curbing “the laugh”) to overcome the likability issue? I’m not so sure.
Trump is Bitcoin’s newest ally.
That brings us to Trump and Bitcoin. Trump is now notably pro-Bitcoin and has been warmly received by the community. He was well instructed by Elon Musk to lean in to crypto, realizing that the crypto space is not only large (90M+) and wealthy, but also weary of 3.5 years of the DNC’s anti-crypto stance, and attempts at penalizing crypto firms, while empowering the big banks. And with JD Vance as his running mate, the pair capture a good share of the tech industry vote and maintain the hillbilly/far right, while simultaneously enabling Trump to personally move to a more centrist campaign and capture a larger voter base.
It was a strong move for Trump to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference. There, he said all the right things, clearly indicating his pro-Bitcoin policy stance and hiring plans, resulting in a wildly supportive response from the audience.
The Bitcoin Rally triggers after summer.
This all translates into a Bitcoin rally that will likely commence after the summer and DNC convention, where Team Harris fails to secure the left’s conviction. Indicative of the DNC’s collective inability to hit the mark from a troop-rallying standpoint are their poor attempts at out-memeing Trump - the “He’s Weird” and the “Project 2025” campaigns have gone nowhere. Yes, SuperPAC funds can be spent poorly.
As the gap between Trump and Harris widens in the final stretch from August (post DNC) to November, Bitcoin will begin its upward incline, as Trump retakes the narrative around immigration, the economy and ending the overseas wars. Then, as the election nears, and a Trump victory looks more likely, it ascends sharply, finally touching $100K by the end of February, accelerated after Trump makes the first pro-Bitcoin policy decisions - a much quicker “first 100 day” win than building a new wall.
So who’s driving the rally? Well, to start, the crypto OG’s have spoken - with their wallets. $3BN in BTC claims have been released so far from Mt Gox, which could have seen prices sharply drop. Instead, the release saw a relatively flat market, indicating that OG’s are holding their coins and “not f**king selling”. This will embolden newer participants in the space to buy and HODL, knowing confidently that they are not exit liquidity. It will also embolden the institutions, corporates, Sovereign Wealth Funds and other investors who are sitting on the sidelines waiting on the election outcome before taking a position, including those that need to own Bitcoin, like ETF issuers.
Harris’s VP is a Wildcard
The wildcard of course is Harris’s VP pick, who I suspect will be a likable, gutsy, moderately opinionated, white, youngish middle-aged DNC regular, who fills in target demographic gaps. I think it’s between Andy Beshear (D-KY), Pete Buttigieg (D-IN) and Gavin Newsom (D-CA) (my money is on Newsom). Do any of these names strike you as swinging an army of swing voters? While they may be great #2’s if elected, I don’t think they swing the ballots in the election. If RFK, Mark Cuban or Bernie Sanders took the ticket, that would change things in terms of votes, significantly. However, I can’t imagine anyone with that big of a support base putting their hand up to play second fiddle in a low-probability battle. In any event, her running mate will be revealed on Tuesday.
LFG #Bitcoin.
Thus, as a Trump victory is secured, pro-Bitcoin policy and actions fast follow, ushering in a 6-figure handle and a new era for the orange coin.
Views expressed in this letter should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.